The new seat of Mid and South Pembrokeshire is expected to see a narrow Labour win - against a projected landslide win nationally - in what is a now a six-way local battle for your vote.

With a July 4 date set for the general election, the currently declared candidates for Mid and South Pembrokeshire are: Alistair Cameron (Welsh Liberal Democrat), Stephen Crabb (Conservatives), Stuart Marchant (Reform UK), James Purchase (Green Party), Cris Tomos (Plaid Cymru), and Henry Tufnell (Labour).

Global public opinion and data company YouGov is predicting Labour’s Keir Starmer could be heading to Downing Street with a historic majority of 194 seats, a central projection of 422 Labour wins, which would be bigger than Tony Blair’s 1997 victory, and the second largest majority in British political history after Stanley Baldwin’s figure of 210 in 1924.

With the new boundary changes, Wales will be dropping from 40 seats to 32 after the general election, and YouGov’s model has Labour winning 28 of them.

Figures for the new Mid and South Pembrokeshire seat predict a Labour win, with 42.6 per cent of the vote, followed by Conservatives on 33.4, Reform 9.4, Plaid Cymru 7.4, Liberal Democrats 3.6, and Green 2.8.